Usertainment Watch

User-gen Video's Long Tail Beginning to Look Fat?

A few observers, myself included, have begun musing about the nature of user-generated video's long tail. Will it prove fat (and thus more lucrative, per the thesis of author Chris Anderson's seminal book), or peter out disappointingly?

The difficulty in assessing online video's tail derives, of course, from the fact that it hasn't been around long enough to grow much of one. Time will remedy this, but what are we to think in the meantime?

Initial evidence is beginning to filter in. A recent report from AccuStream, "User Generated Video 2005-2008: Mania Meets Mainstream" (other findings from which were cited in my previous post), suggests that user-generated video's tail may prove surprisingly fat. "Almost 20% of total views generated in 2007 were delivered by videos published in 2006 or before," a summary of the report states.

Hmm. Something for marketers and advertisers to chew on as they try to figure out where user-generated video will fit in.

Can User-Generated Video Really Be This Big?

If several recent research reports are correct, user-generated video is a much bigger deal than most of us probably thought.

In "User Generated Video 2005-2008: Mania Meets Mainstream," streaming-video research firm Accustream contends that u-gen video "scored 22 billion views in 2007." True, u-gen video trailed views through "professional content sites," with the latter accounting for 33.5 billion views, but u-gen video grew much faster last year, up 70% vs. 50.3% for "professional" content, according to Accustream.

Similarly, NewTeeVee reports on a study by Screen Digest projecting that u-gen video's share of total video streams will grow from 47% in 2006 to 55% by 2010. (I must stay that I'm scratching my head over NewTeeVee's conclusion as stated in its headline, "User-Generated Video Growth Flattening").

New Features from Online Video Tracking Service TubeMogul

TubeMogul, the online video tracking and distribution service, recently announced the launch of several new free features, "our Premium Products, and a new TubeMogul user interface," advises Mark Rotblat at TubeMobul. 

"We’ll be starting to publish TubeMogul Industry Analysis reports as well – some macro-level data we’ve been collecting on videos uploaded through our service," Mark says.

Having been through the experience of developing corporate viral videos and then trying to determine their effectiveness, I can attest to the need for tracking. And since effectiveness is relative, anything that can provide comparative benchmarks should be helpful.

Over time, the metrics arsenal for online video will only continue to grow, bringing more science to the art.

Usertainment Watch Debuts on Ad Age's "Power 150"

I'm pleased to report that Usertainment Watch has debuted on Ad Age's "Power 150" list of the top media and marketing blogs.

Usertainment Watch currently is at No. 471 on the list, which obviously has expanded from its original 150.

The Power 150 is described as "a ranking of the top English-language media and marketing blogs in the world, as developed by marketing executive and blogger, Todd Andrlik." The rankings derive from an algorithm that combines Google page-rank, Bloglines subscribers, Technorati ranking and "Todd Points," a subjective assessment of frequency, relevance, creativity, content quality and the like.

I would add that the Power 150 is a great resource (Usertainment Watch's inclusion aside). As blogs proliferate, there's room for more such compilations.

Why So Much Interest in Video Advertising Metrics?

Word this week that Google will be working in concert with Nielsen to develop a system for tracking consumers' television-advertising viewing habits was pretty big news in the media that covers the media -- after all, much of advertising (and the dollars that go with it) is based on demographics and other people- and viewing-related data.

But what I also found fascinating about this news was that, apparently, video advertising metrics are of great interest to quite a large audience -- much broader, apparently, than just the media and advertising crowd.

As evidence, check out the accompanying screen grab, taken from The New York Times business section on Wednesday. The "most-emailed" business story of the day, in terms of page views? None other than the Times article about the Google-Nielsen arrangement. Never mind that Merrill Lynch was imploding. Or that home sales were imploding further. Or that the mortgage contagion was spreading. What readers were emailing most had to do with the seemingly arcane world of video metrics, of all things.

Sure, the story was interesting to me -- but to tons of ordinary business readers as well? Who woulda thunk it?

Mobile Handsets: Viral Video's Next Revolution?

Just as video clips viewed on computer screens are revolutionizing viewer habits and shaking up the entertainment-industry sectors that live and die by those habits (see previous post), it appears possible that mobile could come along and foment yet another video revolution.

In a report today, Mark Walsh at Online Media Daily cites a new study from research firm MMetrics that reports mobile video growth this year of more than one-third, to 8 million viewers. But the real blockbuster in Walsh's report is this: "With 6.8 million viewers, viral clips have proven to be the most popular category of mobile video."

In the context of the total mobile-phone subscriber base, those numbers are still small. Nevertheless, they should have executives in Hollywood and on Madison Avenue shaking in their boots.

That's because as consumers adopt new viewing vehicles (mobile handsets and Internet-enabled computers), they are showing clear signs of relegating traditional television programming to -- well, TVs. Short video clips, an unheard-of format just two or three years ago, rule on the Internet but don't work for television. And most significant of all could be indications, such as in the MMetrics study, suggesting that mobile viewers may end up preferring viral video (which typically is user-generated) over other formats.

Talk about a revolution!    

Everything You Wanted to Know About User-Gen Video?

This report probably is woefully outdated by now, but given its apparent exhaustiveness, pointing to it seems worthwhile even if a bit belated.

I'm talking about "User-Generated Video 2006-2007: Mania & Myth," from Accustream Imedia Research, published in November 2006.

Given that Google announced its acquisition of YouTube on October 9, 2006, one can see right there that the report's timing was a bit problematic, given the implications of that huge deal.

But beyond that, the report's apparent comprehensiveness is staggering. The summary spans 10 sections spanning at least 295 pages (with data points tending to end in September or October 2006). YouTube, Yahoo Video, Metacafe and Revver are given sections of their own. Other sites, from Break.com to StupidVideos and Sharkle, are examined in some detail. Data and trend analysis appear to be both broad and deep.

I'm a bit surprised this report isn't cited more often, and that it hadn't come to my attention previously. I suspect, for one thing, that the GoogTube marriage may have reduced media interest in its findings. There's also the rather substantial matter of the report's pricing, at $2,495. In a market where major change is measured in days rather than months or years, any report runs the risk of losing its relevance quickly.

   

User-Gen Video Still Growing With Younger Consumers

It's no surprise that younger consumers continue flocking to online video, but what's important to most readers of this blog is how user-generated video is doing with the format's core crowd, the younger demographic.

Ken Rutkowski of KenRadio cites a recent IQ Report that finds consumers between 18 and 34 are attracted to user-gen video in proportions that rival more established forms such as news clips. A total of 42% of 18-34-year-olds viewed user-generated videos in the first half of '07, nearly even with 44% viewing news clips.

What may be even more eye-popping is how user-gen video compares to TV shows with the younger set: Yes, TV shows captured a growing contingent of younger consumers in the first half of '07, at 51%, compared to 33% the previous half. But user-generated video was viewed by 42% of this age group in the first half of '07, and the growth rate, up from 26% the prevoius half, was of a similar magnitude.

Yes, Hollywood is slowly getting its act together by putting more content (much of it shorter and thus more appropriate) online. But user-generated video seems to have established a powerful organic growth path of its own.

Good news for producers, needless to say.

Video Viewer Snapshot: Not Quite Forever Young

If you make videos, you'd be well advised to make them with a young demographic in mind -- for now, at least.

Sure, you already know that. But the latest research on online video from the Pew Internet and American Life Project, written by Mary Madden, re-emphasizes the point while also detecting signs of video life from older demographics.

"Roughly one in three (31%) internet users age 18-29 said they watched or downloaded some type of video on a typical day during the period of this survey," Pew reported.

That's substantially higher than the "watch video daily" rate (18%) for the next-oldest Internet user group, ages 30-49. And if you're making videos for the 50-64 or 65-and-older age groups? You better reconsider, given that daily viewership rates for the oldest sets of Internet users are 12% and 10%, respectively. (And keep in mind that we're talking Internet users here -- throw in the fact that older individuals have lower online adoption rates, and the viewer differential becomes greater still.)

So think young -- for now. At the same time, maybe it's not such a good idea to completely dismiss older Internet users. I'm actually surprised that 10% of the oldest consumers watch videos daily. Remember, older age groups traditionally have depended heavily on television for entertainment. As the "boomers and beyond" set continues to become less reliant on the boob tube and spend more time with YouTube, look out!

We're Being Watched -- By Demographers

You know you've arrived as a group when demographers start slicing, dicing, categorizing and quantifying you. Well, it's happening to us.

The June 11 issue of BusinessWeek features an article (with accompanying charts) by Jessi Hempel, "Web Strategies That Cater To Customers," that describes the activities of various sorts of consumers at various types of user-generated-content sites. (BusinessWeek's source is Forrester Research.)

Usertainers, not surprisingly, fall into a demographic category called "Creators." Creators "publish Web pages, write blogs, upload videos to sites like YouTube."

Again not surprisingly, the number of video contributors is dwarfed by those in the category called "Spectators" (in plain speak, "viewers").

The report claims that an impressive 4.59% of web users create content for Wikipedia, while only 0.16% did so for YouTube. I'd contend that the number of Wikipedia contributors is inflated, perhaps because people think they'll sound smarter if they claim to have posted to it. I'd also contend that the number of video uploaders eventually will surpass Wikipedia contributors.